Greek economy will recovery only in 2013, not 2012 as previously assumed the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), it follows from the report.
Due to a serious increase in unemployment and reduced inflation in the economy of Greece will be reduced and by 2013 could reach zero, says the OECD, while the ratio of government debt to GDP will continue to grow.
Regular Economic Report of the OECD published on Monday. Previous such document was released in June of this year.
Greek economy fell further into recession this year, despite the recovery of exports, like the OECD. Expectations for economic recovery Greece sharply reduced. For the current year GDP forecast to fall by 6.1% against 2.9% in the June report to the next - a decline of 3% against the previously estimated GDP growth of 0.6%. Now OECD expects GDP rise until 2013, when he could add 0.5%. In 2010 Greece's economy shrunk by 3.5%.
The volume of production fell seriously in 2011 in connection with "the collapse of domestic demand, falling incomes, deteriorating labor market situation and limited access to credit," says the OECD. Increase in production is not expected until 2013.
The economy will continue to decline in 2012, mainly due to the ongoing budget savings.
Despite the fact that the OECD notes a positive trend of exports of Greece, it still lowered expectations for the pace of its growth this year and next: up to 7.9% and 6.5% respectively from the previous 9.4% for both year. In 2013, the organization assumes the growth rate of 7.1%. In 2010, he has added 4.2%.
A significant recession and high unemployment (Greece unemployment rate is second only to Spain among OECD countries) have to crush inflation in the country, which can fall to almost zero by the end of 2013. Despite this statement, the OECD still raised its forecast of growth of consumer prices for the current year to 3.0% from 2.9% next year - up 1.1% to 0.7%. Inflation expectations in 2013 - 0.2%. In 2010 inflation was 4.7%.
OECD significantly worsened expectations on the dynamics of demand in the country against unemployment, measures to consolidate and deterioration of the global economy. The total volume of domestic demand will fall this year by 9.2% (compared to previous estimates of incidence of 6.9%) in 2012 - 5.8% (against a decrease of 0.9%), and a new forecast for 2013 - d - a decrease of 1.3%. Private consumption decreased by 5.3% (vs. 5.4%), 5.2% (0.2%) and 0.8% respectively.
Increased unemployment and growth forecasts, this year it will reach 16.6% (vs. 16.0%) will soar in 2012 to 18.5% (vs. 16.4%) and reaches 18.7% in 2013.
The new draft budget in Greece suggests that the deficit of 9% of GDP in 2011 and decrease to 5.4% in 2012. These figures include the background to save the country from defaulting, October 26-27, approved by the leaders of the eurozone, including the expense of writing off 50% of Greek debt in the hands of private investors. Write-offs may begin no earlier than 2012.
OECD agrees with the level of deficit for the current year at 9%, but forecasts a budget deficit of 7% of GDP next year and 5.25% - in 2013. "These figures are based on the weaker economic growth and do not include debt relief for the country because of lack of information on the details of the restructuring plan obligations," says the OECD. Previously, the organization was expecting a more moderate budget deficit: 7.5% of GDP - in the current year and 6.5% - next year.
The volume of public debt is now forecast at 165.1% of GDP this year, 181.2% - in the next, and 183.9% in 2013. These figures do not include debt relief. In a previous report, the OECD waited relations obligations to GDP at 150% of GDP by the end of 2012.
Debt problems eurozone, which is largely aggravated the situation in Greece, are currently the main risk to the global economy, according to the OECD.