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Today, the Republic of Belarus (RB) is experiencing tremendous social and economic upheavals. In terms of size they are comparable only with the consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union, collapsed when the planned economic model. What is happening in 2011 in Belarus over the entire post-Soviet collapse reminiscent of the '90s. Since the beginning of this year's financial and economic system of Belarus went hawking: a rapidly depreciating local currency, non-stop rising prices for goods and services are steadily declining incomes. From the previous stability, the former pride of many Belarusians, no trace remains.
Prices in the country are growing almost weekly. According to the National Statistical Committee (NSC) Belarus inflation in September 2011 was 13.6%, and 9 months of this year, consumer price inflation reached 74.5%. Moreover, food prices in January rose to 84.2%. It is expected that by year-end prices for consumer goods will reach 100-120%. And this despite the fact that in 2010 it amounted to only 9.9%.
Note this is a record for both Europe and the CIS countries the figures. To compare, in Ukraine for the first 9 months of the year inflation was 5.7%. And if even this relatively small increase in prices as a severe blow to afford the Ukrainians, it is possible to imagine the depth of the decline in living standards of Belarusians. Suffice it to say that from the beginning, the average salary in Belarus fell 2-fold, from $ 530 to $ 260.
Belarusian ruble since the beginning of 2011 depreciated by 3 times. In January, $ 1 was given three thousand rubles, in late October, $ 1 was worth 8.5 thousand rubles. In general, the financial policy of the authorities during the crisis other than a strange name difficult. National Bank of Belarus (NBB) is actually formed in the country's own currency black market.
Until recently, there were several Belarusian currency. The official, at 5.5 rubles per $ 1 by which exporters were obliged to sell 30% of its BNB foreign exchange earnings. Exchange at the level of 7.5-8.5 rubles for $ 1 which you can sell the remaining 70% of revenue, and in which currency purchased by importers. And the market at the level of 8.5-9 thousand rubles for $ 1 which had to buy foreign currency in exchange offices of ordinary Belarusians.
Only on October 20 was introduced by a single trading session on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange, which establishes a uniform exchange rate for all economic players. As a result, the official exchange rate and the Belarusian ruble fell to a predictable market levels, and $ 1 today is worth 8.5 thousand rubles. In this case, according to many of the Belarusian experts, a significant potential for further devaluation of the «bunny».
But father uncontested
It seems that the crisis is far from over and in front of the Belarusians are waiting for more difficult times. In the near future plans of the Belarusian authorities to raise fuel prices by 40-45%, an increase in the cost of public transport, increase in tariffs for public utilities by 30%, failure to contain the prices of fruits and vegetables, increasing tuition fees in higher education in 20% ...
Moreover, in the middle of October, the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that now «in no case be clamped prices», while in May, he admonished the government: «Any growth should be stopped immediately!» Changing its position as the president says this, «marketeers», «We have such a price level that they have already reached in the insolvency of the population. Next is already so prices can not rise.» At the same time is evidence of confidence in the strength of the Belarusian president and his government that he will keep the situation under control.
The fall in living standards naturally resulting in rising dissent in Belarusian society. According to the Belarusian Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Policy Research in June 2011, Alexander Lukashenko, trust 35.7%, 53.8% did not trust.
Earlier this year the numbers were diametrically opposite: trust Belarusian president 55% did not trust 34.1%.
Obviously, the crisis of the Belarusian economic model of the social base undermined the political regime of Alexander Lukashenko. The authorities of Belarus no longer able to perform the previous social contract, because it is they have no more money. Over the past few months, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians suffered personal disaster. People have lost business, jobs, life savings. And lost trust in the authorities.
However, the socio-economic collapse in Belarus has not yet led to any major shifts in the political life of the republic. In the RB has not yet emerged a political entity, capable of effectively competing with Alexander Lukashenko, the more seriously confront him. Tipped the political space, the opposition, mostly sitting in prisons and foreign countries, and «cheering» flash mob protests and motorists do not have a real threat to the regime. Strong punitive apparatus of the Belarusian state while coping well with the emerging unrest.
The legitimate reasons for the change of power there will be no earlier than 4 years, when in Belarus to be held next presidential election. Until that time, a danger to the regime may be, perhaps, only the spontaneous uprising of the masses and popular rebellion. In order to be guaranteed to prevent Alexander Lukashenko, takes money. And the more he is able to attract money, the higher its chances to smooth out the growing social tensions in the country and continue to stay on top of the Belarusian power pyramid.
In search of money ...
The financial situation in Belarus in 2011, characterized by a chronic shortage of foreign currency. The devaluation of the Belarusian ruble has led to excessive demand for foreign currency by the population. According to various reports, «under his pillow,» the Belarusians have to date accumulated $ 6-7 billion addition, Belarus imports exceed exports steadily. Negative balance of foreign trade of Belarus for the first 9 months of 2011 totaled $ 4 billion
At the same time, reserves of Belarus as of October of this year totaled only $ 4.7 billion of these funds is not enough. As the chairman of the NLB Nadezhda Ermakova available gold reserves «do not provide the work of the economy, they will last for 1-2 months.» She explained that according to international standards, gold reserves should provide three-month supply of imports. For Belarus, it's $ 12-15 billion
In addition, inappropriately appeared in time need to pay their earlier loans. In 2011, the repayment and servicing of external debt requires a relatively modest sum of $ 0.7 billion, but then the payments increase significantly. In 2012, for these purposes will require another $ 1.8 billion in 2013 — $ 3.1 billion in 2014 — $ 3.2 billion in 2014 — $ 2.7 billion
All of this suggests that Belarus will soon need a lot of foreign currency. Minsk can expect only 2 sources — external loans and the sale of state property.
Western lending channels while that for Belarus blocked. After the dissolution of the Belarusian Maidan in December 2010 Europe and the United States stopped its political contacts with Aleksandr Lukashenko and a large part of his entourage. Today the West is still willing to lend to Belarus, but in political terms — the release of political prisoners, negotiations with the opposition, parliamentary elections were the 2012 OSCE standards.
Consolidated Western position was voiced at the summit of «Eastern Partnership» Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Despite the fact that Belarus has defiantly ignored the summit, the Polish prime minister said that if the political demands of Minsk will receive grants and loans of up to $ 9 billion in funds of funds «Eastern Partnership» of up to $ 2 billion and simplification of visa regime for Belarusians. Thus, Alexander Lukashenko retains room to maneuver and with shortage of funds may be hard to make political concessions.
About This commitment shows and the recent release of a considerable part of the prisoners involved in the riots in December last year.
In addition, in June 2011, Minsk has sent a formal request to the International Monetary Fund for a loan in the amount of $ 3,5-8 billion IMF mission that visited Minsk in October, set conditions for the allocation of credit "tight macroeconomic policies in 2012 year «and stressed at the same time that» does not raise any political demands. " Overall outcome of the negotiations for Belarus is quite successful — mission again to visit Minsk in the nearest future.
But who does not present political conditions in Belarus, so is China. According to Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus, Beijing has provided a credit line to $ 15 billion for various projects, including $ 3 billion of soft loans by 2-2.5% per annum. The risks here are that China provides related loans, that is, the Chinese zavedut in Belarus not only their money but their equipment and manpower. And in the not too distant future, the Chinese presence may be an important factor in the Belarusian economic life.
However, most of Belarus expects the dividend from the integration of the Customs Union (CU) and the creation of the Single Economic Space with Russia and Kazakhstan. So far, the special benefits of joining the TA Minsk did not get quite the contrary. The TA from July 1, were significantly increased import duties on cars, which provoked in the first half, a real «boom car». In anticipation of more expensive cars in the national currency depreciation Belarusians took massive loans to buy cars, which, according to experts, washed away from the currency market at least $ 1 billion
On the other hand is almost Minsk made a key goal — reduce the cost of Russian energy, which constitute a substantial part of Belarusian critical imports. As Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the price of Russian oil and gas to Belarus next year will be «even lower than that of equal prices in the customs area.» According to the Prime Minister of the Russian-Belarusian contracts for the supply of oil and gas will be signed by the president in November.
But the prerequisite for the signing of these contracts is to sell the remaining property in Belarus 50% of «Beltransgaz» to «Gazprom» for $ 2.5 billion, in fact we are talking about establishing full Russian control over Belarus gas pipe. And this is just the first sign of impending large sale of the Belarusian state property. At the turn of the economy such pearls of RB as a «Belaruskali», «Grodnoazot», Polotsk and Mozyr oil refineries, MAZ, BelAZ, MTS.
Belarus is perhaps the only country in Europe, where he stayed as a major public sector. Alexander Lukashenko has long opposed the privatization of Belarusian industry tidbits, but Russia tying loans to large-scale privatization of Belarus. In particular, the line of credit crisis stabilization fund EAEC a $ 3 billion in 3 years is open to the terms of the large-scale privatization of state assets in Minsk.
Privatisation of public sector today looks almost RB inevitable due to the fact that it guarantees the country badly needed foreign exchange earnings. I must say that in future they will need even more as the Belarusian government is actively taking new loans, plunging the country into debt, and debt service will require more funds.
Do not forget that the new owners will be engaged in cost optimization of Belarusian enterprises, adapting them to the requirements of market economy and reducing social costs. And the whole Belarus gradually move to a market economy, and soon it will be a completely different country than the one we knew.
Andrew Kuznichenko