The road from the Airport. Heydar Aliyev to Baku, struck a perfect finish. And the center of the Azerbaijani capital — bright lights, grandiose buildings, monuments and modern renovated historic City. However, the roads are too great. Impression that came to the capital of one of the developed countries of Europe, not in the Caucasus.
Prices too surprising. A cup of coffee costs about 5 manat, a modest lunch — about 20 manats, and meat in the supermarket costs 12 manats per kilo. Azerbaijani currency against the euro traded around one to one. Nevertheless, a cafe in the city center filled with people.
Azerbaijan in recent years regularly included in the top five in terms of GDP growth in the FSU. Elegant showcase Azerbaijan's «economic miracle» is consistent with macroeconomic indicators.
This is just a sign. It is necessary to take a few steps away from the traditional routes of the guest, and she begins to crumble. The center of Baku was Potemkin village, the growth of the economy — the linden, and many citizens in conversation with a foreigner too curious exhibit unusual for Ukrainian fright. Surprises and low level of education of many young people.
Lowdown
Human rights organizations Human rights watch and Freedom house regularly celebrate violation of democratic standards, the Azerbaijani authorities. More undemocratic in the region consider only the dictatorial regimes of Central Asia. Over the last six months in the state were arrested eighteen opposition activists. Hundreds of opponents of the Aliyev family, which runs the country since 1993, passed through the prison. Colleague nationalist President Abulfaz Elchibey and the current leader of the opposition Popular Front leader Ali Kerimli for six years virtually shut the country. Power under the false pretext he refused to issue passports.
Attacked journalists. And not just local. In June, the capital of Azerbaijan were beaten by an American journalist Amanda Erickson and British human rights activist Silja Davis. These facts, together with the memories of the harsh suppression of popular protests in 2003 and 2005. create an atmosphere of lawlessness and fear in the country.
Outskirts of Baku are very different from the ultra-modern buildings and historic center. This contrast reflects the gulf between the living standards of the Azerbaijani elite and the majority of Azerbaijanis. According to independent experts on economic issues, Azer Megtieva to live too luxuriously in Baku month, you need to earn at least EUR2 thousand Price tags in shops confirm the words of an expert. Meanwhile, one million two hundred thousand retirees of the country receives a pension of one hundred and seven dollars, the salary of public sector employees — $ 150-200.
And this despite the fact that Azerbaijan is one of the largest suppliers of oil to world markets. Experts point out that revenues from oil and oil products with taxes on foreign companies account for more than 75% dvadtsatimilliardnogo budget. 95% of exports of Azerbaijan — energy. «About 70% of the budget is stolen, 20-30% goes to the creation of infrastructure projects, which play the role of» holiday showcase «the country» — says the leader of the Popular Front leader Ali Kerimli.
According to the organization Transparency International, Azerbaijan occupies the 134th place among 178 countries in terms of corruption. Many interlocutors in Baku lead shocking examples of embezzlement of budget funds by state companies. Baku is the coverage allegedly about $ 240 million every six months for the construction of 2 km of the road may be written off $ 20 million to repair one of the common schools of Baku in this year's budget was included $ 13 million, with no guarantee that it will not be empty due to lack of teachers. Also, due to lack of specialists can stand the hospital. But that does not care about power — the wealthy Azeris are treated abroad.
Economist Azar Megtiev said that 60% of graduates of secondary schools in Azerbaijan in 2011 failed the exam, and the situation from getting worse year by year. However, successful graduates who are fortunate enough to receive higher education abroad, often can not find the application at home and are forced to leave the country.
Director of the Azerbaijani branch of «Radio» Liberty «Genghis Sultansoy in the comments noted that the authorities intentionally turn people into» uneducated herd. "Mr. Sultansoy noted the absence in the country of the middle class. It is economically independent citizens could become a threat to the current regime. Foreign capital is unlikely to positively influence the situation — it is concentrated mainly in the oil and gas industry.
The other branches are lost in the shadow of the oil and gas production. As the official statistics, agriculture employs 40% of the population, while its share in state budget is only 5%. More than 90% of its budget comes from Baku.
To maintain the current situation under control, the Azerbaijani authorities to use and yet one of the outstanding issues — Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Member of the Public Council on Karabakh, Azerbaijani political analyst Zardusht Alizade not sees a chance for a compromise. «Karabakh conflict will be resolved or when the President of Armenia in Yerevan, surrenders to his knees in front of the president of Azerbaijan, or — on the contrary,» — he said. The present situation and it is estimated as many policy stalemate. It is an argument in favor of authoritarian the presidencies of both countries. Azerbaijani opposition claim that the current state of «cold war» with sporadic gunfire in the line of delimitation, prolong the political life of Ilham Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan. However, the director of the independent news agency «Turan» Megman Aliyev nevertheless confident that The situation may change. Exit Karabakh stalemate he connects with the Liberals came to power in both countries. "Armenian opposition is ready to give up the occupied territories in exchange for the free development of the country. Because of Armenia itself entirely to become hostage to Karabakh must contain these areas without sufficient resources for this, and totally dependent on foreign and domestic policy of Russia ", — said Aliyev Megman.
Oil vs. democracy
Whatever Paradoxically, one of the obstacles in solving the Karabakh conflict and democratization of the country is oil.
Among the many Azerbaijani political scientists are of the opinion that four or five years, the country will reduce oil production. Samih as energy reserves, subject to the current rate production, only a little more than a decade. Falling oil production has hurt the country's economy and could trigger a shift of power. But the experts about the outlook for different sectors. Ilham Shaban of the agency «Turan», many years writing about oil and gas production in the country assured as follows: "The country is enough energy to support the economy at current levels until at least 2035
The most pessimistic forecasts in the depths there are about 2, 5 trillion. cubic meters. meters of gas and 1, 2 billion tons of oil. A recently discovered in the field «Apsheron» condensate will delay the decline of hydrocarbon production. "Recall that oil exports in 2010 amounted to approximately 44 million tons for the first quarter 2011, Azerbaijan was the seventh among oil producers in the EU. 40 million . barrels exported to the EU amounted to 5% of the purchased raw material Europe. This explains the sluggish reaction of the West on the violation of democratic freedoms in Azerbaijan. Such a behavior of «adherents of democracy,» many opponents of the Aliyev regime plunges into depression.
Some hope for change for the better Azerbaijanis are associated with the «Arab spring». A lot of sight in Baku is facing today in Ukraine. Then carefully watching the confrontation between the authorities and the islands of civil society. «If this works out for you, and we can» — said the author of new friends in Azerbaijan.
Oles Kulchinsky